Economic assessment and forecasting
This project will provide forecasting, which calculates the likely economic effects during the operations phase and lessons to support local businesses.
Understanding potential future impacts on regional economies can better inform local businesses on how they can respond.
[Music plays and CSIRO logo and text appears: GISERA Gas Industry Social and Environmental Research Alliance]
[Text moves to the left and new text appears: Looking to the future]
[Text splits and moves towards the top and bottom of the screen and a map of Australia appears in the centre and the camera zooms in on the Surat Basin on the map and text appears beneath inside an arrow pointing to the right: 2010, 2015 Construction, Operations]
Narrator: The Surat Basin Coal Seam Gas Construction phase of 2010 to 2015 brought rapid changes and the Operations phase continues to be dynamic. To benefit from likely economic effects, local businesses need to be ready and adaptable to change.
[Image shows the screen moving to the left and the arrow continuing to the right and outline images of employees and text appears: 2025, 2030]
Using projected gas industry employment figures, CSIRO has forecast trends for indirect jobs related to the coal seam gas industry for the next 20 years.
[Image shows the screen continuing to move to the left and the arrow continuing to the right and text and a line graph appears above the arrow: Total Indirect Employment (Excluding FIFO and DIDO workers)]
[Text appears inside the arrow: 2014, 2024, 2034]
Findings show indirect employment for the region is forecast to increase from 2014 to 2024 but decrease from 2024 to 2034
[Image shows red highlights on the line graph and labels appear at the end of the lines: Scenario 2, Scenario 1, Business as Usual, Scenario 3]
with mini booms and slowdowns in between.
[Image shows a broken line appearing at the base of the line graph and text appears: 2006 Level]
In 2034, indirect employment is forecast to be lower than 2014, however still higher than 2006.
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Business sectors projected to benefit are construction, utilities, other services, for example mechanics, arts and recreation and administrative and support services.
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CSIRO has identified ten lessons small to medium enterprises learned from the coal seam gas construction boom
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that can assist businesses ride future waves of upturns and downturns.
[Image changes to show animation outline clients lining up on the left of a business labelled “Alex’s”]
Look after core customers.
[Image shows a second line of clients appearing on the left of the business and a van labelled “Alex’s” appearing from the right-hand side of the screen]
Boom times can bring new clients and more costs.
[Dollar symbols appear above the roof of the business and a joint thought bubble appears above the heads of the clients displaying a thumbs-up symbol]
Keeping prices steady and maintaining services helps retain your customer base.
[Image changes to show an outline animation male with a light bulb above his head and then lines appear connecting the outline animation male to a group of buildings, a bank, people and a dollar graph]
Stay connected. Source knowledge from Industry Bodies, Regional Economic Development Groups, Chambers of Commerce and Government Programmes.
[Image changes to show four buildings all connected by chain links to a line of clients and coin stacks, note stacks, and boxes circulate around the chain links connecting the buildings]
Understand the industry and supply chain.
[Image changes to show an outline building with a line of people on the left-hand side below a calendar symbol and then the image shows note stacks emitting from the building to the line of people]
If payment takes 45 days, plan how to pay your staff. Change happens fast.
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Prepare to downsize in quieter times.
[Image changes to show an animation image of a male behind a desk talking on the phone to a female in front of the desk and the image shows a light bulb appearing above the male’s head]
Get advice from Business Consultants to plan and help make tough decisions.
[Image changes to show a handshake and then the image changes to show a male looking down at the work “RISK” and then dollar coins being put into a piggy bank appear in the foreground]
Understand contracts and do risk analysis to protect revenues and manage cash flow.
[Image changes to show a building, a truck, computer monitors and a drill press in a line and the image shows coins emitting from the base of them]
Don’t overcapitalise. Paying for big assets post boom can be hard.
[Image changes to show two horizontal green circles with outline images of two males and two females inside and then the circles move to stack on top of each other]
Broaden your customer base by diversifying into new markets unrelated to gas.
[Image changes to show an outline of a male in a gold suit standing on a podium while a line of people listen and then a magnifying glass appears over the male on the podium]
Beware of people talking up opportunities.
[Camera zooms out and a web page appears on the right-hand side of the screen]
Seek reliable information.
[Image changes to show an animation image of a male at a desk clutching his head and then hands appear around him holding a coffee cup, a clock, a stack of papers, a mobile phone, a calendar and some letters]
Booms bring expansion but also uncertainty. Weigh up the benefits with potential work life stress
[Image changes and the camera zooms in on certificates of Occupational Health & Safety, Quality Assurance, Advanced Processes and Advanced Systems and then camera zooms in again to show animation images of a male and a female wearing cloaks and a male and female wearing business suits]
and look for business building opportunities with your increased skills and capacity.
[Music plays and CSIRO logo and text appears: GISERA Gas Industry Social and Environmental Research Alliance]
[Sponsors logos and text appears: Download the fact sheet to learn more about employment forecasts for the Surat Basin 2014 to 2034 and implications for SMEs, Gisera.org.au]
Looking to the future: Job forecasts for the Surat Basin, 2014-2034
Reports and papers
Employment scenarios in Queensland CSG region 2014-2034
This report presents the findings of a research project on forecasting the potential economic effects of the Coal Seam Gas industry to 2034.
Evaluating economic models to forecast regional socioeconomic impacts generated by unconventional fossil fuel extraction Economic Assessment and Forecasting Project
This report presents the outcome of a review of available techniques for modelling future local economic effects of the CSG industry during the expansion and ongoing operations phase.
Overview and synthesis of regional economic effects of the CSG industry during the construction phase
This report reviews some of the most important literature evidencing changes across regions that have hosted CSG expansion in recent years. The literature reviewed demonstrates that the CSG industry has increased local family income and employment in the mining sector.
Living with resource booms and busts - new research paper published
CSIRO researchers have published a new paper – Living with resource booms and busts: Employment scenarios and resilience to unconventional gas cyclical effects in Australia.
Using a case study of coal seam gas development in Queensland, Australia, the researchers consider factors affecting resilience of local businesses to cyclical boom and bust effects.
Resources
Looking to the Future: Job forecasts for the Surat Basin, 2014 to 2034
Animation explaining the outcomes of the economic modelling of CSG related employment for the Surat Basin and implications for local business
Looking to the future
This communiqué presents a summary of research about the economic effects of the CSG industry during the operations phase. The findings draw on two sets of data. The first is economic forecasting of indirect employment that flow on to other sectors from the CSG industry. The second is a set of interviews with local stakeholders identifying lessons from the construction phase which can be useful to small businesses during the operations phase.
Forecasting rural employment effects from unconventional gas in Australia
This presentation was made at the International Symposium on Society and Resources Management, Umea, Sweden.
Social and economic Knowledge Transfer Session
The outcomes of this project were presented, along with other projects at a social and economic knowledge transfer session was held in Brisbane on 16 December 2016, with representatives from government and industry.
Economic and socioeconomic impacts of CSG development
Presented to the Resources and Energy Workshop: Australian Government Office of the Chief Economist, Canberra, Australia.
Overview of Social and Economic Research findings’
Presented to the Queensland Gasfields Commission, Toowoomba, Australia, November 2014.
Project Progress
This project is complete.
Project proposal
A detailed description of the project, budget and research milestones.
