Economic and demographic trajectories of CSG regions in NSW

Analysing future variables in regions of CSG development and operations

This study will identify current levels and trajectories of economic, social and demographic variables, in regions within NSW that are experiencing CSG development, and analyse whether or not the CSG industry could change the trajectory of these variables.

This research will result in a comprehensive baseline assessment of economic, social and demographic characteristics of CSG regions in NSW and the potential impacts of CSG on these characteristics.

Narrabri streetscape

Reports and Papers

Economic impacts of early unconventional gas mining: Lessons from the coal seam gas industry in New South Wales, Australia

Journal paper, February 2019.

Highlights:

Analysed economic effects of early coal seam gas (CSG) mining in NSW, Australia.
Early CSG mining activities can influence regional family income levels.
The results are robust to spatial autocorrelation and unobserved heterogeneity.
The estimates were also tested using generic matching casual inference methods.
No indirect job multiplier effect from initial CSG mining was found.

Economic impacts of early unconventional gas mining: Lessons from the coal seam gas industry in New South Wales, Australia

Assessing the economic effect of CSG activity under different scenarios in NSW

Final Report, January 2018.

This final report details methods for calculating future benefits and impacts under different scenarios for the CSG industry in NSW, and presents the outcomes from each scenario.

Projections have been developed to consider income effects and employment effects under three future hypothetical scenarios:

Business as usual.
Increasing gas demand translates into new CSG activity at average 2010–2014 levels.
Increasing gas demand reactivates CSG activity in the region at maximum 2010–2014 levels.

The economic research underpinning the method was presented in the project’s Milestone 3 report, which gave a historic analysis of the economic impact that the emerging CSG industry had on rural NSW regions during the period 2001–2011. The results presented in this report are intended to inform future research on the economies of regions experiencing CSG industry activity in New South Wales, if the industry proceeds.

Assessing the economic effect of CSG activity under different scenarios in NSWPDF1 MB

Assessing linkages between regional economic indicators and CSG industry activity in NSW 2001-2011

Milestone 3 Report, November 2017.

This milestone report Assessing linkages between regional economic indicators and CSG industry activity in NSW 2001-2011, documents the assessment of the statistical associations between CSG industry activity and regional economic indicators observed in New South Wales during the periods 2001–2011.

It is based on econometric analysis of income and sectoral employment dynamics in regions which experienced CSG activity (treatment group) relative to regions without CSG wells (control group).

The report is one milestone within a larger ‘baseline’ project which was developed in response to stakeholder demand to establish a point of comparison in case of any potential future CSG industry activity in NSW.

Milestone 3 report, November 2017.PDF4 MB

Economic baseline for NSW CSG regions

Milestone 2 report, August 2017.

This report is the first output of this study, which aims to provide an economic baseline for NSW coal seam gas (CSG) regions by identifying current levels and trajectories of economic, social and demographic variables in CSG regions within NSW and analysing whether or not the CSG industry could change the trajectory of these variables. This research will result in a comprehensive baseline assessment of economic, social and demographic characteristics of CSG regions in NSW and the potential impacts of CSG on these characteristics.

The report assesses the baseline levels of economic and demographic variables relevant to regions experiencing CSG industry activity in NSW. Specifically, the project compares the baseline levels of key economic and demographic factors compared to other regions which had similar characteristics prior to CSG development. This report has been prepared to underpin subsequent statistical analysis of these variables. The purpose of this document is to: