CSIRO study identifies long-term demographic shifts during onshore gas operations in Queensland

That is one of the key findings of the CSIRO multi-decadal evaluation of the local demographic shifts over 20 years of onshore gas operations in Queensland. This finding signals some continued human capital benefits for those rural communities.

Conducted through CSIRO’s Gas Industry Social and Environmental Research Alliance (GISERA), the recently completed project explored the changes in employment, incomes and young adult populations of residents in communities across the Bowen and Surat basins of Queensland, for the period 2001-2021.

While previous studies had analysed short-term regional impacts of onshore gas operations in Australia and elsewhere, this project evaluated the longer-term, specifically local demographic and economic changes.

The research team used two sources of publicly available data – ABS Census data on local economy and population, and Geological Survey of Queensland data about the location of natural gas wells – to make meaningful comparisons between communities with or without onshore gas operations.

Project findings showed that mining employment in the Surat Basin was mostly in onshore gas extraction operations and, during the 20 years of onshore gas activity, these jobs initially increased then declined. Like employment, income growth increased then eased in the second decade. Both shifts were consistent with the industry moving to a less labour-intensive operations phase.

Initial increases in the young adult populations of communities local to gas operations were also found. This increase steadied in the second decade for this cohort, although, arrival and retainment continued to be higher in those communities. The skills of young adults were also higher in these communities, including more with Certificates III or IV.  In the second decade, for the 25-to-34-year-old cohort, females with bachelor degrees notably increased.

The shift in the local young adult population suggests skilled employment opportunities were a source of motivation. Future research could explore in more detail, including whether these people had pre-existing ties to the communities and were returning after furthering their education, or were newcomers.

“Similar evaluations could be undertaken for energy projects around Australia. The benefit being scientific, timely and transparent inputs for decision-makers and communities about changes in their financial, human and social capital,” says Simone Felton, the CSIRO Project Leader.

Read more about this project. A project overview fact sheet is being developed for this research and will be available on the GISERA website soon.

Learn about other GISERA research in Queensland.